How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is tracking whether the world sees at least one **magnitude 6.5+ earthquake** during a one-week window in early August 2026. With the crowd already pricing **95% YES**, traders are effectively assuming that a week without a 6.5 is far less common than a week with one, and the live USGS-linked catalog is the key reference point for settlement[11][7].

That price sits in line with how seismic risk usually reads over short horizons: most days produce only moderate quakes, but a handful of larger events can arrive anywhere on the globe and reset the count quickly. On 9 August, one live world report listed **no quakes of magnitude 6 or higher** in the previous 24 hours, while another tracker still showed a **6.3** as the week’s largest event, which underlines how close these markets can sit to a threshold without crossing it[1][2]. The recent 2026 record also shows multiple **6.5+** shocks already this year, including the June Mindanao sequence and a 6.5 in Mexico earlier in the year[15][18].

The main catalysts are not team news or schedule changes, but **new USGS catalogue entries**, especially for offshore events and aftershocks that can be revised after the initial bulletin. Traders should watch for late updates from the USGS search catalogue and significant-earthquakes feed, because a quake can appear, be re-analysed, and only then be finalised at or above the 6.5 cut-off[11][4]. Deep or remote events are particularly relevant, since they can be missed by casual trackers but still count for settlement if USGS records them in the window[7][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.