Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from passing through the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran war continues, with commercial transit suspended following a brief, failed reopening. Tensions remain volatile after US strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran’s retaliatory targeting of a US base, leaving the chokepoint closed and shipping executives awaiting a peace deal to restore confidence. Current traffic sits near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 ships daily, creating an estimated daily economic cost exceeding $4 billion while 21% of global oil and 25% of LNG trade face risk.

Historical precedents for such chokepoint closures suggest that reaching a seven-day moving average of 60 arrivals is exceptionally rare during active conflict, as seen when Iran previously imposed tolls and laid mines after the February 28 US-Israeli attack. IMF PortWatch data from late June 2026 shows a 7-day moving average of only 13.14 ships, far below the 60 threshold required for a “Yes” resolution, indicating that the current 89% crowd-implied probability may be overly optimistic given the persistent blockade and lack of ceasefire progress.

Traders must monitor President Trump’s stipulation that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, alongside NBC News reports confirming minimal progress in peace negotiations and the declaration of a naval blockade. Key dependencies include whether Iran lifts its tolls, removes potential mines, or allows safe passage routes as mapped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, since actual transit figures may be higher if ships alter GPS tracking but remain insufficient to meet the 60-ship average without a formal peace agreement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.