Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group G clash between Egypt and Iran at Lumen Field in Seattle on 26 June 2026 is the real-world event driving this market, with both sides unbeaten after two rounds and seeking automatic qualification to the Round of 32[1][2]. Egypt, led by head coach Hossam Hassan, aims to reach seven points with a win, while Iran remains on two points and must avoid defeat to stay in contention[2]. The market’s 16% crowd-implied probability for an exact score reflects the high likelihood of a tight, tactical contest where both defences are disciplined but attacking threats exist.

Historically, World Cup matches between African and Asian nations in Group stages often end in draws or narrow victories, with scores like 1–1, 2–1, or 2–2 appearing frequently when both teams are unbeaten and motivated[1][2]. In Egypt’s last five matches, they recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss, including a 3–1 victory over New Zealand and a 1–1 draw with Belgium, suggesting consistency in scoring but vulnerability to pressure[2]. Iran’s probable 5–4–1 formation contrasts with Egypt’s 4–2–3–1, a tactical divergence that has previously produced balanced outcomes in similar fixtures, framing the 16% probability as plausible but not dominant.

Traders should monitor final lineup announcements, particularly for Egypt’s key attackers Mohamed Salah and Egypt’s defensive structure, and Iran’s reliance on goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand and forward Sardar Taremi[2]. Any injury updates or tactical shifts before kick-off at 11 p.m. ET could alter the expected scoreline, as Hassan’s side must maintain clinical efficiency to secure top spot[2]. With the settlement window ending 03:00 GMT on 27 June, all pre-match news and in-play developments will directly impact the market’s resolution, making real-time monitoring essential for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.