Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 81% |
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 44% |
| Tom Kim | 44% |
| Maverick McNealy | 43% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 42% |
| Jackson Koivun | 36% |
| Corey Conners | 34% |
| Keith Mitchell | 32% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 32% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 31% |
| Mac Meissner | 31% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Ben Kohles | 30% |
| Pierceson Coody | 29% |
| Jackson Suber | 28% |
| Max Homa | 28% |
| Benjamin James | 28% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 28% |
| Johnny Keefer | 27% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 27% |
| Casey Jarvis | 27% |
| Michael Brennan | 26% |
| Brian Harman | 26% |
| Gary Woodland | 25% |
| Max McGreevy | 25% |
| Michael Kim | 24% |
| Davis Thompson | 23% |
| William Mouw | 23% |
| Max Greyserman | 22% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 22% |
| Zac Blair | 22% |
| Kevin Yu | 21% |
| Beau Hossler | 21% |
| John Parry | 21% |
| Lucas Glover | 21% |
| Zach Bauchou | 21% |
| Ricky Castillo | 20% |
| Steven Fisk | 20% |
| Andrew Putnam | 20% |
| Rico Hoey | 20% |
| Keita Nakajima | 20% |
| Denny McCarthy | 20% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 19% |
| Lee Hodges | 19% |
| Doug Ghim | 18% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 18% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 18% |
| Sam Stevens | 17% |
| Tony Finau | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| Seamus Power | 17% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 17% |
| Chris Kirk | 17% |
| Austin Smotherman | 17% |
| Kevin Roy | 17% |
| Preston Stout | 16% |
| Jesper Svensson | 16% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 16% |
| Tom Hoge | 16% |
| Joel Dahmen | 16% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 14% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 14% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 14% |
| Billy Horschel | 14% |
| Austin Eckroat | 14% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 14% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 13% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 13% |
| Garrick Higgo | 13% |
| David Lipsky | 13% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 12% |
| Chad Ramey | 12% |
| Aaron Wise | 12% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 11% |
| Matt Kuchar | 11% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 11% |
| Nick Dunlap | 11% |
| Karl Vilips | 11% |
| Neal Shipley | 11% |
| A.J. Ewart | 10% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 10% |
| Luke Clanton | 10% |
| David Skinns | 10% |
| Chandler Phillips | 10% |
| Lanto Griffin | 10% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 9% |
| Ryder Cowan | 9% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 9% |
| Trace Crowe | 9% |
| Mark Hubbard | 9% |
| Adam Hadwin | 9% |
| Harry Higgs | 8% |
| Hayden Springer | 7% |
| Vince Whaley | 7% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 5% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Cameron Champ | 5% |
| Jason Day | 1% |
Market context
PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 — current market-implied probability: 81%. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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