Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 100% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 0% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Sam Burns | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Bud Cauley | 0% |
| Wyndham Clark | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Ryan Fox | 0% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| Harry Hall | 0% |
| Brian Harman | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Max Homa | 0% |
| Viktor Hovland | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Tom Kim | 0% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Min Woo Lee | 0% |
| Shane Lowry | 0% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Rory McIlroy | 0% |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% |
| Collin Morikawa | 0% |
| Alexander Noren | 0% |
| JT Poston | 0% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% |
| Aaron Rai | 0% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% |
| Justin Rose | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0% |
| Matthias Schmid | 0% |
| Adam Scott | 0% |
| Alex Smalley | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Sepp Straka | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0% |
| Justin Thomas | 0% |
| Gary Woodland | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pga tour: fedex st. jude championship first round leader. This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 1 of the main tournament at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, t…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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