Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz (-1.5) | 0% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Union Raiffeisen Gurten 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Blau-Weiß Linz 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Union Raiffeisen Gürten and FC Blau-Weiss Linz will contest an Austrian Cup (ÖFB-Pokal) fixture on 24 July at 13:30 local time. The 0% implied probability on additional markets suggests either minimal liquidity or a structural expectation that supplementary betting options will not materialise for this particular match.
Historical precedent indicates that cup ties involving lower-tier or regional Austrian clubs frequently see sparse secondary-market activity. When one or both participants lack significant supporter bases or media coverage outside their immediate region, sportsbooks and prediction platforms often decline to expand their offering beyond standard match outcomes. Gürten, based in the Bern canton, competes in Switzerland's lower divisions, whilst Linz operates in Austria's second tier; neither club typically commands the fixture depth available for Bundesliga or European competition matches. The 0% reading reflects this structural reality rather than a forecast about match likelihood.
Traders monitoring this market should track official ÖFB Cup draw confirmations and any late team news affecting squad availability. Austrian media outlets including ORF and Krone occasionally report on cup preparations for regional sides, particularly injury updates or managerial statements in the fortnight before fixtures. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled—rather than postponement or withdrawal—would be the primary catalyst for any shift in secondary-market availability. Settlement timing at 17:30 UTC on match day aligns with standard European cup protocols.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Union Raiffeisen Gurten vs. FC Blau-Weiß Linz - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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