Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe | 45% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to prague 2: oriol roca batalla vs radu mihai papoe. This market refers to the tennis match between Oriol Roca Batalla and Radu Mihai Papoe in the Prague 2, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Oriol Roca …
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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