Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Match O/U 22.5 | 71% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee | 61% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Match O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Game Spread +/-2.5 | 46% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 16% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 2 Winner | 14% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification atp: daniel rincon vs jordan lee stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Rincon and Jordan Lee in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market …
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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