Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Match O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Match O/U 38.5 | 87% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 87% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Match O/U 40.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 62% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 Winner | 37% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm | 19% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 13% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: marco trungelliti vs martin damm. This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Martin Damm in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungell…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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