Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 95% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 91% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 14.5 | 91% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| 1H Moneyline | 91% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 91% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 91% |
| Kansas State O/U 24.5 | 86% |
| O/U 43.5 | 85% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati | 83% |
| Spread -1.5 | 83% |
| Spread -2.5 | 81% |
| O/U 35.5 | 77% |
| O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| O/U 45.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 70% |
| Spread -4.5 | 69% |
| Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| O/U 49.5 | 68% |
| Kansas State O/U 27.5 | 67% |
| Cincinnati O/U 18.5 | 67% |
| Spread -6.5 | 65% |
| Kansas State O/U 30.5 | 63% |
| O/U 51.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| Spread -22.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Cincinnati O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| Spread -12.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Kansas State O/U 33.5 | 44% |
| O/U 57.5 | 43% |
| O/U 55.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 59.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Spread -11.5 | 34% |
| Spread -19.5 | 33% |
| O/U 63.5 | 33% |
| O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| O/U 69.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| O/U 75.5 | 30% |
| Kansas State O/U 36.5 | 30% |
| O/U 71.5 | 29% |
| Cincinnati O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| O/U 61.5 | 26% |
| Cincinnati O/U 27.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -1.5 | 16% |
| Spread -2.5 | 15% |
| O/U 67.5 | 14% |
| Cincinnati O/U 30.5 | 14% |
| Spread -23.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 18.5 | 10% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -11.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, kansas state vs. cincinnati stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Kansas State and Cincinnati, scheduled for September 26 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas State" if Kansas State win t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $291K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Kansas State vs. Cincinnati. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23ef4444%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Kansas State vs. Cincinnati on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →