Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Liverpool FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Liverpool FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AS Monaco O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AS Monaco O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AS Monaco O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Liverpool FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Liverpool FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AS Monaco 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AS Monaco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AS Monaco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Liverpool FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| AS Monaco (-1.5) | 0% |
| Liverpool FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| AS Monaco (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Liverpool FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AS Monaco 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Liverpool FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Liverpool FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Liverpool’s meeting with AS Monaco is priced as a clear home-leaning friendly, but the 0% YES line for “more markets” is much lower than most pre-match views of the game itself. Public previews and model outputs still point to a Liverpool win, with estimates ranging from roughly 58% to the mid-60s, while scorelines such as 2-1, 3-1 or 2-2 appear repeatedly across forecasters, which implies there is room for secondary markets to resolve in a live, rather than one-sided, pattern.[11][19][4][3]
The historical guide is that Liverpool at Anfield have generally been treated as a strong favourite against Monaco, but pre-season fixtures are more volatile than competitive games because rotation and late squad changes matter more than baseline quality. Several recent previews highlight Liverpool’s home edge and squad depth, while also flagging that Monaco have enough attacking threat to score and keep the total-goals profile from becoming trivial, which is why traders often look beyond a straight home win in friendly setups.[1][2][12] A 0% reading therefore sits well below the broader market consensus and would need a sharp shift in match conditions to move materially.
The main catalysts to watch are late team-news releases, starting XIs, and any indication that either side will prioritise minutes management over result. Reports around this fixture have focused on Liverpool’s friendly rotation and possible attacking selections, with some outlets already leaning towards goals on both sides and others towards a controlled home win, so the exact mix of senior starters versus younger or fringe players is likely to decide whether ancillary markets gain traction.[8][4][3]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Liverpool FC vs. AS Monaco - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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