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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage

"Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage" — live sports odds and platform comparison.

First Blood in Game 1? 90% O/U 2.5 Games 64% Ends in Daytime 50% Both Teams Destroy Barracks 50% Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $905K Closes: 15 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
First Blood in Game 1?90%
O/U 2.5 Games64%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Game 2 Winner42%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)32%
Both Teams Beat Roshan31%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?29%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?27%
Match Winner22%
Any Player Rampage16%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?10%
Ends in Daytime1%
Both Teams Beat Roshan1%
Any Player Ultra Kill1%
Any Player Rampage1%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?1%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 5 match between Team Liquid and Aurora in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to …

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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