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Colombia vs. Mexico

How the sports market is pricing "Colombia vs. Mexico" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

Colombia 38% Mexico 38% Draw 27% Volume: $332K Liquidity: $253K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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Colombia vs. Mexico

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 38% 62% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 38% 62% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Colombia38%
Mexico38%
Draw27%

Market context

Colombia vs. Mexico — current market-implied probability: 38%. This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 between Colombia and Mexico.

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Colombia at 38% for "Colombia vs. Mexico".

Colombia 38% Other 62%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $332K.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Colombia vs. Mexico. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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