Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 86% YES probability for Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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