Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 58% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 46% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 40% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The France vs. Sweden - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for France vs. Sweden - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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