Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 67% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 62% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 62% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 57% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 37% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 26% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 25% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 18% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 13% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 8% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 7% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 6% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 5% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 4% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, portugal vs. croatia - player props stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23ef4444%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →