Tunisia vs. Netherlands

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group F match between Tunisia and Netherlands, scheduled for Thursday, 25 June 2026 at GEHA Field in Kansas City, frames a stark contrast in tournament fortunes. Tunisia, already eliminated with two heavy defeats and an eight-goal deficit, face a Netherlands side aiming to top the group after a draw and a win in their opening fixtures[1][3].

Historically, the 3% crowd-implied probability for Tunisia to win aligns with comparable cases where a team with zero points and severe defensive frailties faces a top-four European contender in a must-win scenario for the latter. In past World Cup rounds, such mismatches have rarely produced surprise victories; for instance, when a team with a negative goal difference meets a side with a positive record in the final group stage, the underdog’s win rate has consistently hovered below 5%, mirroring the current market sentiment[1][5].

Traders should monitor final squad announcements for Netherlands, particularly any potential rest of key attackers given their group-top position, and watch for Tunisia’s tactical adjustments under head coach Hervé Renard, who has emphasised pride despite elimination[8]. Recent previews note Tunisia’s recent form includes four losses in six matches across all competitions, suggesting little basis for a sudden transformation, while Netherlands’ defensive stability remains a critical factor to watch before the settlement window closes[1][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Tunisia vs. Netherlands across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.