Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
18% | 82% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
18% | 82% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 18% |
| United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14% |
| United States 1 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 13% |
| United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 11% |
| United States 1 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 10% |
| United States 3 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 10% |
| United States 3 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 8% |
| United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 6% |
| United States 0 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4% |
| United States 2 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4% |
| United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3% |
| United States 3 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3% |
| United States 0 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 1 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 2 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 3 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 0 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0% |
Market context
The United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina meet tonight in a win-or-go-home FIFA World Cup Round of 32 clash at 8:00 PM ET, where the market assigns a 6% probability to an exact score outcome, implying the crowd expects a decisive but not highly specific result. Historically, matches between these sides have been goal-heavy; across three prior encounters, eight goals were scored with the USA winning two and drawing one, suggesting that low-scoring exact-score outcomes are statistically rare and that the 6% price likely reflects the difficulty of pinpointing a specific margin rather than a lack of attacking intent[1].
Traders should monitor final lineup announcements, particularly regarding Bosnia’s midfield rotation between Sunni and Tahhiric, who have played roughly a game and half each, and the confirmed partnership of Demirovich and Joko in attack, which could drive runs behind the defence[4]. The USA’s recent form shows vulnerability after a 4-1 win over Paraguay and a 2-0 victory against Australia, followed by a 3-2 loss to Turkey, indicating defensive fragility that may influence the final scoreline[2]. As the match is a knockout fixture with no extra time or penalties counted for this market, any postponement would keep the market open until the game is completed, making real-time injury updates and tactical shifts critical before kickoff[1].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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