Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 90% |
| Completed Match | 70% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken | 56% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 Winner | 55% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 Winner | 52% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
Market context
Market consensus: 90% chance of us open, qualification atp: vilius gaubas vs harry wendelken. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Vilius Gaubas and Harry Wendelken in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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