Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Boise State O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Boise State O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Boise State O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Boise State O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 93% |
| O/U 40.5 | 93% |
| O/U 46.5 | 87% |
| Spread -3.5 | 79% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| O/U 50.5 | 76% |
| Spread -5.5 | 75% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 75% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 75% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 75% |
| Spread -8.5 | 72% |
| O/U 51.5 | 71% |
| Spread -6.5 | 69% |
| O/U 52.5 | 66% |
| O/U 54.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordon Davison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dierre Hill Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Evan Stewart: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dakorien Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dante Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamari Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dylan Riley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Da'Jaun Riggs: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sire Gaines: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah McClellan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Iverson Hooks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Maddux Madsen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cameron Bates: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Gatlin Bair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Juelz Goff: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ben Ford: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rasean Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kendre Harrison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Quinton Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matt Wagner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Darren Morris: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Austin Terry: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| Spread -13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| Spread -31.5 | 25% |
| O/U 64.5 | 24% |
| Spread -34.5 | 20% |
| 2H Moneyline | 20% |
| Boise State vs. Oregon | 19% |
| Spread -27.5 | 19% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| O/U 70.5 | 13% |
| Spread: Oregon (-24.5) | 6% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Boise State vs. Oregon. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If Boise State wins, the market will resolve to "Boise State". If Oregon wins, the market will resolve to "Oregon". If th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $411K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Boise State vs. Oregon. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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