Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 77% |
| O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| O/U 49.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 47.5 | 56% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Hawaii O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| O/U 53.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 67.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Spread: Stanford (-5.5) | 44% |
| O/U 51.5 | 44% |
| O/U 55.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Moneyline | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Hawaii vs. Stanford | 38% |
| O/U 48.5 | 38% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, hawaii vs. stanford stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 7:00PM ET: If Hawaii wins, the market will resolve to "Hawaii". If Stanford wins, the market will resolve to "Stan…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $193K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Hawaii vs. Stanford. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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