Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread: Fresno State (-18.5) | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| Spread -20.5 | 100% |
| Spread -21.5 | 100% |
| Spread -24.5 | 100% |
| Spread -27.5 | 100% |
| Spread -31.5 | 100% |
| Spread -34.5 | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| O/U 51.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| Spread -19.5 | 100% |
| Spread -22.5 | 100% |
| Spread -23.5 | 100% |
| Spread -25.5 | 100% |
| Spread -26.5 | 100% |
| Spread -28.5 | 100% |
| Spread -32.5 | 100% |
| Spread -35.5 | 100% |
| Spread -38.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| Bryson Donelson: Anytime Touchdown | 91% |
| Jayden Mandal: Anytime Touchdown | 91% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rayshon Luke: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josiah Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamar Curtis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tariq Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cincere Rhaney: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahlil McClain: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jake Appleget: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matthew Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Harold Duvall: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jace Wilson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ezekiel Avit: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Onterrio Smith Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Elias Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Sharman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kenyon Shabazz: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sacramento State vs. Fresno State | 0% |
| O/U 53.5 | 0% |
| O/U 55.5 | 0% |
| O/U 57.5 | 0% |
| O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| O/U 61.5 | 0% |
| O/U 63.5 | 0% |
| O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| 2H Moneyline | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of sacramento state vs. fresno state. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Sacramento State and Fresno State, scheduled for September 12 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sacramento State" if Sacrame…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $48K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Sacramento State vs. Fresno State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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