Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 37.5 | 88% |
| O/U 39.5 | 86% |
| O/U 41.5 | 81% |
| O/U 43.5 | 79% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| Hawai'i O/U 20.5 | 73% |
| UNLV O/U 22.5 | 73% |
| O/U 47.5 | 70% |
| UNLV O/U 32.5 | 67% |
| Hawai'i O/U 21.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 64% |
| UNLV O/U 26.5 | 62% |
| UNLV O/U 28.5 | 62% |
| UNLV O/U 31.5 | 62% |
| Hawai'i O/U 23.5 | 61% |
| O/U 51.5 | 60% |
| UNLV vs. Hawai'i | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| Hawai'i O/U 24.5 | 55% |
| O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Hawai'i O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Micah Alejado: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Kayden McGee: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| UNLV O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Hawai'i O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jai'Den Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Arnold: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Blaze Kamoku: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tama Uiliata: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylon Glover: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cam Barfield: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DeVon Rice: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Devin Alves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DeAngelo Irvin Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Taeshaun Lyons: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Audric Harris: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keyan Burnett: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Taz Reddicks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Darrien Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tavian McNair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tre Griffiths: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Diezel Kamoku: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kainoa Carvalho: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Peyton Zachary: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matt Byrnes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| UNLV O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| O/U 56.5 | 47% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Hawai'i O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 57.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| O/U 58.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 59.5 | 39% |
| Hawai'i O/U 29.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| UNLV O/U 23.5 | 37% |
| O/U 61.5 | 36% |
| Hawai'i O/U 30.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| UNLV O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| O/U 63.5 | 31% |
| UNLV O/U 34.5 | 31% |
| Hawai'i O/U 32.5 | 29% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Hawai'i O/U 33.5 | 28% |
| O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| UNLV O/U 35.5 | 27% |
| O/U 67.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 69.5 | 20% |
| O/U 71.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| O/U 73.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| O/U 77.5 | 9% |
| Spread -24.5 | 8% |
Market context
The UNLV vs. Hawai'i prediction market currently prices this outcome at 88% YES. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:00PM ET: If UNLV wins, the market will resolve to "UNLV". If Hawai'i wins, the market will resolve to "Hawai'i". If the game is p…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $257K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for UNLV vs. Hawai'i. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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