Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Chongqing Tonglianglong’s meeting with Shanghai Haigang is the kind of fixture where the market can move quickly on team news rather than reputation. The strongest historical read is that Chongqing have already shown they can take points off higher-profile opponents this year, including a 2-2 draw with Shanghai Shenhua and a 2-1 away win at Shanghai Port, while Haigang’s own recent profile has been more uneven, with a 2-2 draw and then a run of mixed results in earlier league snapshots.[8][13][1]
That matters because the crowd-implied 0% YES on the “more markets” side suggests traders are pricing in low confidence that any of the secondary propositions will land without a clear edge from lineup or game state. Comparable matches between these sides have tended to be open enough for goals-related and result-linked derivatives to stay live deep into the game, with both teams scoring in several of Haigang’s recent comparable league samples and Chongqing avoiding defeat in stretches where they were expected to be underdogs.[1][8]
The key catalysts are late team sheets, any change in the starting goalkeeper or centre-back pairing, and whether either club rotates after a congested schedule; those factors matter more here than broader league context. The match is scheduled for Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium, and market pricing can shift sharply if a beat-reporter or club update confirms a first-choice attacker, a suspension, or a sudden tactical adjustment before kick-off.[2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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