Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| AFC Bournemouth 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 91% |
| AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) | 90% |
| AFC Bournemouth (-2.5) | 90% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| AFC Bournemouth 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| FC Augsburg (-2.5) | 2% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Augsburg (-1.5) | 0% |
Market context
AFC Bournemouth’s club friendly against FC Augsburg has no competitive head-to-head history, so the 98% crowd price for **more markets** is being read off the fixture context rather than any prior meeting pattern.[1][9] Bournemouth have gone into this summer on the back of a 4-1 friendly win over St. Pauli, while Augsburg arrived after a 1-1 draw with Saarbrücken and a mixed run at the end of their Bundesliga season, which included a 4-0 loss at Union Berlin and a 3-1 win over Gladbach.[3][11] That profile fits a pre-season game where market variety is usually driven more by team selection and substitutions than by match history.[1][15]
For traders, the main catalysts are late team-news, rotation and any minutes limits for players returning from summer work or carrying knocks, because these friendlies often change character after the first hour when benches empty and trialists appear. Bournemouth’s recent scoring pattern suggests they have been capable of creating chances in open games, while Augsburg’s results have swung between tight draws and higher-event defeats, which can lift the chance of additional markets being offered once the fixture starts to open up.[3][11] The key dependency is whether either coach treats this as a full-strength dress rehearsal or a controlled fitness exercise; that distinction usually determines how quickly cards, corners, substitutions and secondary props become available.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for AFC Bournemouth vs. FC Augsburg - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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