Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Borussia Dortmund O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Borussia Dortmund O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AS Roma O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AS Roma O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Borussia Dortmund 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Borussia Dortmund 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AS Roma 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AS Roma 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Borussia Dortmund (-1.5) | 0% |
| AS Roma (-1.5) | 0% |
| Borussia Dortmund (-2.5) | 0% |
| AS Roma (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Borussia Dortmund O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AS Roma O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AS Roma 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AS Roma 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Borussia Dortmund will face AS Roma in a pre-season friendly on 15 August at 11:30 AM ET, part of both clubs' summer preparation ahead of the 2026–27 campaign. The match carries particular weight for Dortmund, who are rebuilding after a disappointing Bundesliga finish, whilst Roma continue their search for stability under their current management structure. Both sides will use the fixture to assess squad depth and tactical options before competitive fixtures resume.
Friendlies between top European sides at this stage of the calendar rarely produce betting consensus, particularly when settlement occurs immediately after kick-off. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either heavily weighted toward alternative outcomes in the broader market cluster, or the specific condition being tested has minimal historical precedent in comparable August warm-ups. Dortmund's recent pre-season record shows mixed results—they drew 1–1 with Villarreal in July and lost to Bayer Leverkusen—whilst Roma's preparation has been similarly uneven, indicating neither side enters as clear favourite.
Key variables include squad rotation depth and injury status, which typically shift in the final week before friendlies. Dortmund's coaching staff have signalled plans to field experimental lineups to evaluate academy prospects, whilst Roma's approach remains fluid pending any late transfer activity. Traders should monitor official team news releases through 14 August for confirmation of travelling squads and any last-minute absences that could alter tactical setup. The tight settlement window—ending just 90 minutes after kick-off—leaves minimal margin for delayed official confirmation.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Borussia Dortmund vs. AS Roma - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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