Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns | 100% |
| Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns - Completed match? | 53% |
| Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns - Who wins the toss? | 1% |
Market context
Guyana Amazon Warriors and San Francisco Unicorns met in the second match of the Global Super League at Providence, with local conditions and squad continuity likely to matter more than headline reputation. Pre-match team notes pointed to Muhammad Haris and Johnson Charles opening for Guyana, while the Unicorns were expected to lean on Connor Esterhuizen and Tim Robinson; neither camp had reported injuries at that stage, which left selection risk relatively low compared with tournaments where late absences distort pricing.[1]
The 100% yes price is best read as a reflection of the fact that the match has already been scheduled and is expected to produce a published result on ESPNcricinfo, rather than as a view on which side would win.[5][12] For form context, preview pieces had Guyana as home favourites on familiar surfaces, while San Francisco arrived with recent MLC game time but, according to one comparison, without several of their strongest available names; that combination usually pushes markets towards a straightforward result when the fixture is completed without interruption.[4][6]
For traders, the main catalysts are any late team-sheet changes, toss information, and weather or stop-start conditions that could affect whether the game reaches a normal finish. If either side has to replace a key batter or bowler, or if the contest is shortened enough for DLS to become relevant, the resolution still follows the official winner, including any on-field tiebreak or ruling that produces one.[1][5]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $71K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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