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Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the sports market is pricing "Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 51% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 50% Map 1 Winner 49% Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 48% Volume: $90K Liquidity: $147K Closes: 15 Aug 2026
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Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
51% 49% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
51% 49% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.551%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Winner49%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.548%
O/U 2.5 Games47%
Match Winner42%
Map 2 Winner41%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)39%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)33%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Wildcard (+1.5)30%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)27%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 51% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Wildcard and paiN in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 15 at 10:00AM ET. This market wi…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
and

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