Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Game Handicap: Team Synapse (-1.5) vs DYNASTY (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DYNASTY (-1.5) vs Team Synapse (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
DYNASTY and Team Synapse were due to meet in a best-of-three EPL Masters Play-In Group A match on 25 August, with the series later listed as finished 0-2 in Team Synapse’s favour on several match trackers.[1][2][3] That matters for pricing because a 0% YES crowd view is only rational if the market is being read after the result has already been published, or if the contract has been left open despite the underlying event being decided.
Comparable Dota 2 markets at this stage tend to move quickly once line-ups are locked and the first map is played, especially in short BO3s where one early draft edge can be decisive. Before the result was recorded, third-party odds and prediction pages showed some separation between the sides, but not a full wipeout, which makes a zero per cent crowd price look more like stale or post-event pricing than a live reflection of team strength.[4][5]
The main catalysts to watch are whether the series was actually played on schedule, whether any reschedule fell inside the market’s settlement window, and whether official brackets or match pages were updated after the nominal start time. Trackers show the match time in the 25 August evening slot and later completion on 26 August UTC, so the key dependency is whether the market’s resolution was driven by the eventual completed BO3 or by an administrative change to the fixture.[1][2][3]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: DYNASTY vs Team Synapse (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Dota 2: DYNASTY vs Team Synapse (BO3) - EPL Masters … on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →