Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior (-1.5) | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| SBV Excelsior 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (-1.5) | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden host SBV Excelsior in the Eredivisie opener at Kooi Stadion, with the market showing **0% YES** despite the fixture being live on the calendar. That price implies traders currently see no credible edge for the “more markets” basket, which is unusual for a season-opening league game where line-up and team-news volatility can still move secondary markets sharply.[3][5][17]
The historical frame is mixed rather than one-sided. Cambuur have had a slight edge in longer-run meetings, with 13 wins and three draws in 26 competitive home games against Excelsior at the Cambuur Stadion, while broader head-to-head data over recent seasons shows both teams landing wins and a fair number of tight scorelines rather than blowouts.[1][12][13] Recent preview material also points in different directions: Cambuur were described as coming off a three-match losing run, while Excelsior were reported to have finished pre-season strongly and entered with momentum, which is consistent with a market that can swing quickly if one side names a weakened XI.[6][5][15]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed team sheets, any late injury or suspension news, and whether either coach signals rotation after pre-season workload. Beat-level reporting is thin in the search results, and one pre-match note explicitly said there were no fresh news items attached to the fixture, so the most relevant dependency is still the official squad announcement close to kick-off.[14] If Cambuur are able to start with a settled home side under Johan Plat, the “more markets” set may draw interest; if Excelsior’s stronger recent run under Ruben den Uil translates into a full-strength away line-up, the current zero per cent may prove too low.[5][15]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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