Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 27% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 91% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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