Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 63% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 61% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 53% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 51% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 49% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 49% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 23% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 12% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 5% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 knockout match between Switzerland and Colombia, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, 7 July at BC Place in Vancouver. This fixture pits Switzerland’s organised, defensive structure against Colombia’s fluid, counter-attacking style, with Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez driving the South Americans’ transition threat.
Historically, similar Round of 16 clashes between a disciplined European side and a dynamic Latin American team have produced narrow margins, often settling on one goal or a draw, with the underdog qualifying in roughly 30% of cases. The current 26% crowd-implied probability for Switzerland to qualify aligns with this pattern, reflecting Colombia’s slight edge in recent form but acknowledging Switzerland’s resilience in tight knockout games.
Traders should monitor final squad announcements for key absences, particularly Granit Xhaka’s fitness for Switzerland and any rotation in Colombia’s midfield ahead of the match. RotoWire notes Switzerland’s predicted 4-2-3-1 lineup centres on Breel Embolo, while Sky Sports confirms the match kicks off at 9:00 PM BST, with over/under total goals set at 2.5. Any late injury news or tactical shifts could materially alter the qualification probability.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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