Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 61% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Unai Simón: 2+ saves | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Rodri: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 9% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rodri: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rodri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 89% YES probability for Spain vs. Austria - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Spain vs. Austria - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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