Senegal vs. Iraq - Halftime Result

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group I finale between Senegal and Iraq kicks off at 3:00 PM ET on 26 June 2026 at Toronto Stadium, with both sides desperate to secure third-placed knockout qualification. Senegal and Iraq have already lost their opening two matches, sitting at 0 points with goal deficits of -3 and -6 respectively, making this a must-win for survival[2][7]. The crowd-implied 4% probability for a Senegal halftime win reflects their recent struggles, including a 3-1 defeat to France where Ismaïla Sarr missed a critical open chance at halftime[8][9].

Historically, teams entering a World Cup finale with two consecutive losses and poor goal records rarely dominate the first 45 minutes; comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 show such sides averaging under 0.5 goals in the opening half, often settling into cautious draws[2]. The 4% figure for Senegal leading at halftime aligns with this pattern, as their defensive frailties and lack of scoring momentum make an early breakthrough unlikely against a Norway-schooled Iraq side that also failed to score in their first two games[2][8].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements for key absences, particularly Senegal’s midfield injuries that have hampered their transition play[9]. Iraq’s recent 4-1 loss to Norway exposed defensive gaps, but their coach may deploy a compact 4-4-2 to neutralise Senegal’s attack, increasing the likelihood of a draw at halftime[8]. Any late news on Sarr’s fitness or Iraq’s goalkeeper selection could shift the probability, as both teams’ form hinges on avoiding early mistakes[9]. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 26 June, with stoppage time included in the 45-minute count[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.