Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The 32% crowd-implied probability for “more markets” reflects a market leaning toward a high-scoring, competitive contest rather than a defensive stalemate.

Historically, the USA holds a 2W-1L-1D record against Türkiye since 1991, with the Americans winning their last two encounters. Comparable World Cup fixtures between these sides have often produced both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, particularly when the USA plays with attacking intent. The current probability aligns with this pattern, suggesting traders should expect a match where both sides find the net and total goals exceed 2.5.

Key catalysts include final squad announcements, confirmed starting line-ups, and any late coaching adjustments. Christian Pulisic’s fitness and availability remain critical, as his presence has historically driven US attacking output. Recent previews from ESPN and The Athletic note both teams as competitive underdogs and slight favourites respectively, with “Both Teams to Score” and “Over 2.5 Goals” highlighted as top betting selections [1][2]. Traders should monitor pre-match warm-ups and in-game momentum shifts, especially if Türkiye’s defence shows early vulnerability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.