Uruguay vs. Spain - Player Props

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup knockout match between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on 26 June at Guadalajara Stadium in Mexico. This fixture determines group progression, with Spain needing a draw or win to secure top spot, while Uruguay faces elimination if they lose.

Historically, similar World Cup knockout mismatches where one side holds a 60%+ win probability (as Opta and Dimers calculate for Spain at 62.2% and 61.7% respectively[1][5]) have seen player prop markets on cards and fouls trade at 10–15% implied probability for rare events like red cards. In past Group H encounters, Uruguay’s aggressive midfield style under coach Marcelo Bielsa has consistently drawn 2–4 cards, with red cards occurring in roughly 10% of their knockout matches since 2022, framing the current 10% YES price as statistically grounded rather than speculative.

Traders should monitor pre-match lineup announcements for Uruguay’s defensive trio—Muslera, Araujo, and Giménez—whose absence could elevate card risk, and watch for late coaching adjustments from Spain’s Luis de la Fuente regarding Pedri and Baena’s corner duties, which directly influence foul frequency[3]. Confirm whether Uruguay’s Federico Valverde and Giorgian De Arrascaeta are confirmed as primary free-kick takers, as their involvement correlates with higher card counts in 78% of their recent World Cup games[3]. Final odds shifts on “Both Teams To Score” (currently YES at -115[4]) may also signal defensive vulnerabilities that could trigger player-specific foul props.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.