Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest (-1.5) | 0% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut (-1.5) | 0% |
| MTK Budapest (-2.5) | 0% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MTK Budapest O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MTK Budapest 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MTK Budapest 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
MTK Budapest meet Puskás Akadémia in the Hungary NB I on 7 August, with the market currently assigning **0% YES** to the “more markets” proposition. The head-to-head has been competitive overall, with different databases showing roughly even long-run records and a tendency towards open games: one summary has the sides split 11-10 across 24 meetings, while another notes 50% of their last five meetings went over the listed total-goals line.[1][3] Recent direct meetings have also produced draws, including 2-2 in both February and May 2026, which is relevant if the market is tied to ancillary outcomes rather than a clean win result.[17][18]
For traders, the most important catalysts are line-ups, late injury news and any confirmation of rotation close to kick-off, because those details can shift secondary markets faster than the underlying match price. The available pre-match data already points to contrast in current momentum: MTK’s last five are listed as three wins, one draw and one defeat, albeit with 1.8 goals conceded per game in that stretch, while Puskás’ season-level numbers show a stronger table position and a higher win count over the longer sample.[1][9] If either side is missing a first-choice goalkeeper, central defender or primary scorer, the “more markets” set can reprice sharply once official teams are published, especially in a fixture where recent scorelines have been volatile.[12][15]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for MTK Budapest vs. Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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