Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Incheon United FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Incheon United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Incheon United FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Incheon United FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Incheon United FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Incheon United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Incheon United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Incheon United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu meet in the K-League on 16 August, with the fixture scheduled for 6:30 AM ET. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or have assigned negligible likelihood to the specific outcome being priced. Given the early kick-off time in UK and US trading hours, liquidity constraints may be suppressing activity rather than reflecting fundamental conviction about the teams' relative strength.
Historical precedent in K-League markets shows that early-morning fixtures often trade with thin order books and wide spreads, particularly when neither club commands a national fanbase outside South Korea. Gimcheon Sangmu, a military-affiliated side with structural roster turnover, has historically underperformed in late-season fixtures when squad depth becomes critical. Incheon United's recent form and injury status heading into mid-August will be material; the club's defensive record in August matches over the past three seasons provides a baseline for assessing vulnerability.
Traders should monitor team news releases from both clubs in the week preceding the match, particularly confirmation of squad availability and any late tactical adjustments. K-League official announcements regarding pitch conditions or scheduling changes occasionally surface 48–72 hours before fixture time. Gimcheon Sangmu's fixture congestion in the fortnight before 16 August may affect rotation decisions. Recent reporting from Korean football correspondents covering the league's mid-season form will clarify whether either side enters the match on an extended winning or losing run, which typically correlates with market repricing once liquidity improves closer to kick-off.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Incheon United FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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