Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Austin FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Austin FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| Austin FC O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Austin FC O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Austin FC O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| Austin FC (-1.5) | 96% |
| Austin FC (-2.5) | 57% |
| Club Puebla O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Austin FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Austin FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score | 23% |
| O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Club Puebla O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Club Puebla O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Club Puebla (-1.5) | 0% |
| Club Puebla (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Austin FC’s Leagues Cup meeting with Club Puebla sits well inside the market’s **96% YES** pricing for “more markets”, which is consistent with a fixture expected to generate a full betting menu and routine settlement activity rather than a narrow or disrupted market. The underlying match itself was broadly priced as Austin’s to manage at home, with multiple pre-match lines putting the hosts around the low-to-mid 50s to high 60s on the win side and most score models leaning towards a 2-1 type game rather than a cagey shut-out. [1][4][11]
That sort of price profile is best read against the recent pattern in comparable Austin and Puebla matches: Austin have been framed as the stronger side on home ground and in tournament settings, while Puebla’s away probabilities have been held down by defensive fragility and a heavier defeat in recent form. Market previews also pointed to goals rather than stalemate, with both-teams-to-score and over-2.5 lines shaded towards yes, which typically helps keep ancillary markets active unless late team news changes the shape of the game. [3][5][12][15]
For traders, the key catalysts are late team sheets, any fitness knocks to Austin’s front line or Puebla’s back line, and whether either side rotates after the compressed Leagues Cup schedule. A recent preview also cited Austin’s attacking consistency and Brad Stuver’s clean-sheet run as part of the home case, so any change in goalkeeper selection or defensive availability would matter; equally, Puebla’s price will move if there is confirmation of stronger XI continuity than expected. [4][12][16]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Austin FC vs. Club Puebla - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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