Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Guadalajara (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Dallas (-1.5) | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Dallas (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CD Guadalajara 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
CD Guadalajara’s Leagues Cup meeting with FC Dallas is priced as if a routine, full match script is the base case, not an unusual one-off event, which is why a separate “more markets” resolution currently sits at **0% YES**. In comparable cross-border group games, traders usually need a concrete trigger — extra-time, penalties, abandonments, or a materially changed settlement condition — before the broader market layer becomes relevant, whereas standard pre-match betting angles mainly affect match winner and totals rather than ancillary market buckets.[1][3][5]
On the football side, Guadalajara come in with the stronger market profile and deeper squad perception, while Dallas carry fatigue risk because they are into a congested run and have already had a Leagues Cup opener in the same week, according to Polymarket’s event framing and FC Dallas’s own match preview.[3][18] Guadalajara were also described as slight favourites by odds compilers, with the market leaning on squad quality and Gabriel Milito’s record since taking charge, while Dallas’ chance is tied more to game-state or rotation than to a broad consensus upset case.[2][3]
For traders, the main catalysts are late team-sheet changes, any rotation driven by scheduling load, and whether either club publishes an update that changes expected minutes for key starters before kick-off.[3][18] A beat-style preview from FC Dallas has already set the stage for the fixture, but the sharper price moves will come if there is confirmation of absences, goalkeeper changes, or unexpected rest after midweek matches, because those are the variables most likely to alter how many side markets are even live by settlement time.[18]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for CD Guadalajara vs. FC Dallas - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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