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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

"LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" — live sports odds and platform comparison.

Match Winner 74% Game 1 Winner 67% Game 2 Winner 67% Any Player Penta Kill 65% Volume: $99K Liquidity: $972K Closes: 31 Aug 2026
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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
Game 1 Winner67%
Game 2 Winner67%
Any Player Penta Kill65%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon63%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?61%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon56%
Any Player Quadra Kill54%
First Blood in Game 1?54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?47%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)46%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?46%
O/U 2.5 Games43%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?42%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill16%
Any Player Penta Kill14%

Market context

LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season — current market-implied probability: 74%. This market refers to the LoL match between Cloud9 and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Clou…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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