Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Match Winner | 17% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Eintracht Spandau face E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS in a best-of-three League of Legends match within Prime League 1st Division Group A on 12 August. The fixture is scheduled for 11:00 AM ET, with settlement occurring at 21:00 UTC the same day. The current market probability of 100% YES reflects confidence in Eintracht Spandau's victory, though the compressed settlement window leaves minimal margin for fixture delays or technical complications that could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
Eintracht Spandau have established themselves as a mid-table competitive force in Prime League, whilst E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS operates as a lower-tier roster with inconsistent domestic results. Historical matchups between established franchises and developmental squads in German League of Legends typically favour the former by margins of 65–75% win probability, suggesting the market's 100% reading may reflect either exceptional confidence in Spandau's form or limited liquidity rather than genuine certainty. Recent roster stability at Eintracht has been a differentiator; the organisation maintained its starting lineup through the spring split without mid-season substitutions.
Traders should monitor official Prime League scheduling announcements through 11 August for any postponements or venue changes, as the seven-day delay threshold for 50-50 resolution begins immediately after the scheduled date. Injury reports or last-minute roster changes from either organisation would typically surface 24–48 hours before match time. Given the settlement deadline coincides with match completion, any technical broadcast issues or administrative delays in result confirmation could create settlement ambiguity.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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