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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Sports snapshot for "LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" with league data and platform comparison on a single page.

Match Winner 77% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Game 1 Winner 68% Volume: $229K Liquidity: $549K Closes: 30 Jun 2026
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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner77%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Game 1 Winner68%
Game 2 Winner68%
O/U 3.5 Games68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Game 3 Winner67%
Game 4 Winner62%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)60%
First Blood in Game 4?53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?51%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?39%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?38%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)31%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?31%
O/U 4.5 Games30%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%

Market context

The LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In prediction market currently prices this outcome at 77% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will res…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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