Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to face off in a decisive MLB game on 25 June at 7:10pm ET, with the Cubs needing a victory to resolve the prediction market as "Chicago Cubs". Current crowd-implied probability sits at 48% YES, suggesting a near-even contest where the Cubs hold a slight edge but remain vulnerable to a Mets upset. This probability mirrors historical patterns from mid-season matchups between these teams in 2023 and 2024, where home-field advantage and recent form often swung outcomes by a single run, making the 48% figure a realistic reflection of the Cubs’ marginal superiority without guaranteeing a win[2].

Traders should monitor the Cubs’ starting pitcher announcement and the Mets’ injury updates on key outfielders, as both teams have shown sensitivity to pitching rotations and defensive absences in recent weeks. The Cubs’ 42-37 record and 19-20 away form indicate inconsistency on the road, while the Mets have struggled with late-game collapses in similar June fixtures[2]. A beat report from The Athletic notes that the Cubs’ bullpen has been under pressure following a 10-3 loss to the Mets on 24 June, raising concerns about their ability to close tight games[3][7]. Any delay in the game or weather-related postponement could shift the probability further, as the market remains open until completion.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.