Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 51% |
| NRFI | 50% |
| O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on 17 August at 7:05 PM ET in a regular-season matchup with settlement occurring after the final out on 24 August. The 51% crowd probability reflects near-parity in perceived strength, though the Tigers enter as home favourites in standard sportsbooks. Detroit's recent form through mid-August has been inconsistent; the club has cycled through stretches of competitiveness and offensive struggles that have kept them in contention for a wild-card spot despite a crowded AL field. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has remained a sub-.500 team for most of the season, with limited offensive firepower and a rotation dependent on mid-tier arms.
Historically, home-field advantage in August regular-season games carries modest weight—roughly 2–3 percentage points in win probability—but the Tigers' ballpark factors and bullpen depth have provided marginal edges in similar matchups. The Pirates' record against teams above .500 this season sits below 40%, a useful baseline for assessing their performance against stronger opposition.
Traders should monitor injury reports released 24–48 hours before first pitch, particularly regarding Detroit's catching depth and Pittsburgh's availability in the outfield. Recent reports from MLB.com have flagged potential roster adjustments for both clubs heading into the final stretch. Weather conditions at Comerica Park—temperature and wind direction—can favour either team's hitting profile. Any last-minute pitching changes or bullpen usage patterns from the preceding day's games may shift the calculus on relief availability, especially for Pittsburgh's thinner bench.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $209K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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