New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox face off tonight at Fenway Park in Boston for a 7:10 PM ET MLB showdown, with the Yankees currently favoured to win. The crowd-implied probability of 56% for a Yankees victory aligns closely with their superior season form; the Yankees sit at 48-31 overall with a strong 26-16 away record, while the Red Sox struggle at 32-46 with a poor 12-25 home record[1]. Historically, such a disparity in team strength and home-away splits in this rivalry has consistently produced outcomes where the stronger away team prevails, making the current 56% figure a realistic reflection of the underlying skill gap rather than an overreaction to recent noise[1].

Traders should monitor the probable pitching lineups and any late-injury announcements before the game, as the Red Sox have key absences that could further widen the margin[10]. The Yankees’ recent results show volatility, including a narrow 5-3 loss to the Red Sox on June 5, yet their overall offensive output remains dominant compared to Boston’s inconsistent scoring[2]. A beat-reporter from NESN noted that the Red Sox’s bullpen struggles have been exacerbated by Travis MacGregor’s 60-day IL status, leaving them vulnerable against the Yankees’ potent lineup[2]. The settlement window ends on 2026-07-02, but the game’s outcome will be determined tonight, with any postponement keeping the market open until completion[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.