Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies, sitting 40-35 and second in the NL East, face the New York Mets, who are 34-41 and fifth, in a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets have already taken the first game of this series, winning 6-4 on June 19 thanks to Juan Soto’s two solo homers, though the Phillies dominated a subsequent national broadcast matchup with a 15-3 victory. This 100% crowd-implied probability for the Phillies to win the upcoming game on June 26 at 7:10PM ET reflects their 7.5-game division lead and home-field advantage, despite the unusual Thursday-Saturday-Sunday schedule created by a FIFA World Cup match nearby, which disrupts typical rest and pitching rhythms[1].

Historically, such extreme probabilities in MLB series often signal a team’s dominance in a specific venue or a critical pitching mismatch, yet the Mets’ recent offensive surge with Soto suggests volatility. Traders should monitor the official starting lineups announced by MLB, particularly whether Zack Wheeler is confirmed to pitch against the Mets, as his presence has been a decisive factor in past Phillies victories[6]. Additionally, watch for any weather-related delays or roster changes due to the tight schedule, as the game’s resolution depends on the official final statistics recognised by MLB, with postponements keeping the market open until completion[1]. The series outcome remains fluid, but the Phillies’ home strength and division lead are the primary catalysts driving the current market sentiment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.