Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 in their MLB matchup on Friday, 26 June 2026, with Colt Emerson scoring the go-ahead run via a seventh-inning home run and J.P. Crawford adding a crucial single[1]. This result directly contradicts the market’s current 100% YES probability for a Mariners win, as the game has already concluded and the outcome is settled, rendering the prediction market obsolete for future trading[1].

Historically, markets showing 100% certainty for a team that has already won a completed game are mispriced anomalies, often stemming from delayed settlement data or technical errors in resolution feeds[1]. Comparable cases in MLB prediction markets reveal that when a game finishes before the settlement window closes, the market should resolve immediately to the actual winner, not remain open with inflated probabilities[1][7]. Traders should note that the Mariners’ 3-1 victory aligns with their season form, where they have outscored the Guardians 22-13 across recent series encounters[6].

Key catalysts for traders include verifying the official final statistics on MLB.com to confirm the 3-1 result and monitoring settlement system updates for immediate resolution[5]. No further announcements or schedule dependencies apply, as the game is complete and the outcome is final[1]. Recent beat reports from Rotoworld Bet had previously favoured the Guardians on the moneyline, highlighting the unpredictability of this matchup before the Mariners’ decisive win[2]. Traders should focus on resolving the market to reflect the actual result rather than engaging with the current 100% probability, which no longer holds real-world validity[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.