Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 59% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox | 33% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of washington nationals vs. boston red sox. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 30 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washing…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $358K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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