Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
46% | 54% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
46% | 54% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 46% |
| Draw | 35% |
| CF Montréal | 20% |
Market context
Columbus Crew host CF Montréal with both sides carrying notable absences into a late-season MLS fixture, and that helps explain why the market is not pricing a heavy home lean. The most recent availability report lists Columbus without Wessam Abou Ali, Sekou Bangoura and Jamal Thiaré, while Montréal are missing Frankie Amaya, Wiki Carmona, Bode Hidalgo, Efrain Morales and Josh-Duc Nteziryayo.[14] Recent form has also been uneven: Sky Sports showed Columbus coming off a 3-1 defeat at Charlotte, while Montréal had drawn 1-1 with D.C. United and 2-2 with New England, after a 0-1 home loss to Inter Miami.[7]
The 46% YES price sits below a straightforward favourite’s profile, which is consistent with a contest where both attacks have been disrupted and neither side has produced a clean run of results. A 2024 meeting between these clubs ended 3-1 to Columbus after Montréal had started that stretch better than the Crew, a reminder that head-to-head history can flip quickly when one side regains finishing quality.[11] The current number therefore reads more like a balanced matchup with home advantage than a strong Columbus certitude.
For traders, the main catalysts are late availability updates and starting XIs, especially because Columbus and Montréal both had multiple players listed as out on the final injury report.[14] Beat-style coverage in Cleveland also highlighted the same absences on the eve of the game, while FOX Sports’ team notes flagged continuing issues for Jamal Thiaré and Montréal defender Efrain Morales, reinforcing that the team sheets matter as much as the recent results.[1][3][9]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $336K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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